传统房屋贷款的谜思

随着时代和利率的转变，一些老一辈传下来的方法，效果可能已不在，可是在他们的时代可是正确的。

谜思1。申请房屋贷款时，期限越短越好，节省更多利息。

答：申请房屋贷款时，期限拉越长越好，即使是你有更快偿还完贷款的能力。期限拉越长，你每个月的最少偿还额就越少，这可避免经济陷入困境时，一时无法偿还最低偿还额。相反的，如果你守纪律，每个月多还几百元，把贷款提早还完也不是问题。

例子：贷款100千，利率7%，期限15年，每个月供900。期限30年，每个月供670。虽然知道自己有能力每个月供900，依然把期限拉到30年。如果立志15年供完，那么就每个月多供230，依然是15年就供完。好处是，万一有突发事件，急用钱，每个月只供670，也不会有事情。MRTA可以只做15年。把期限拉长，你没有任何损失。相反的，如果期限30年，每个月需供900。万一有突发事件，急用钱，拿不出900，可能你就会被警告，列入黑名单了。

谜思2。借越少钱越好。

答：以目前的贷款配套，如果BLR-1.5%的话，利息只有5.25%，事实上在市面上你应该找不到如此低的贷款利息了，除了教育贷款。股票融资，个人贷款，信用卡利息等等，利息都比5.25%高。相反的，比5.25%高回酬的投资，却不难找到。ASM有6-8%，Income Fund可能有7-8%，一些高股息公司，派息率也高过5.25%。或许明年的EPF派息也高过5.25%。纽西兰定期高过5.25%。因此，自认有投资能力者，应该借越多越好，可以借90%就借90%，就好像虎兄所说，要赚就让银行赚吧，如果你有把握从其它管道赚取更高回酬。

2007年值得留意的领域 - 资料更新

2007年值得留意的领域

1. 石油

石油及天然气价格持续上涨，相关公司盈利看涨。

我的心水推介: PETDAG (Petronas Dagangan) RM4.82 @27 Dec 2006

18 April 2007: PETDAG at RM6.85，回酬42%。

2. Metal

钢铁钢铁国内及国外的需求继续增加，前景亮丽。

我的心水推介: TONGHER RM4.10 @27 Dec 2006

18 April 2007: TONGHER at RM5.10, 回酬24%。

激烈的一战

这两天犹如过山车的走势，令我大开眼界。
中国股市大跌9%，道琼斯指数大跌400点，直到今天的综合指数一开市10分钟即猛挫100点，触目惊心，令人叹为观止。
市场并没有犹如911恐袭般的大坏消息。
这是风暴前的征兆吗？
这是大户借题发挥，来个大调整，踏着散户的尸体，继续累计筹码吗？
52亿的交易总值，不是在升势中创下，反之在猛烈的跌势中创下，又隐藏着什么讯息呢？
是阿都拉的错吗？哈哈哈！
http://www.chinapress.com.my/content_new.asp?dt=2007-03-01&sec=business&art=0301bs02.txt

这两天带出的讯息可不少，就举个例子，一间公司（股票）的基本面有多强，实际价值值得多少，也很赤裸裸的呈现在我们眼前。
简单的例子：
大众银行从上星期五的RM9.20，到今天的RM8.80，跌了区区4.3%。
艾芬银行从上星期五的RM2.54，到今天的RM2.23，跌了高达12.2%。

这也凸显出短期投机的高风险，长期投资优质股的好处。

破50亿成交量，1196点 （28/2/2007）

Highest Date Value KLCI
1 5-Jan-94 5,592,749 1314.46
2 28-Feb-07 5,318,198 1196.45
3 26-Feb-97 5,309,703 1265.37
4 4-Jan-94 5,257,611 1313.35
5 22-Dec-93 4,838,002 1121.38
6 15-Dec-93 4,791,184 1116.09
7 3-Jan-94 4,779,236 1288.85
8 24-Feb-97 4,681,303 1264.9
9 13-Dec-93 4,563,375 1090.35
10 28-Feb-97 4,536,501 1270.67

WB Savings Portfolio WB模拟储蓄组合 24/2/07

I decided to make some changes to my WB Savings Portfolio.
From now on, the re-investment will be RM1500 every 3 months, which is more realistic from my perspective...hehe...

WB Savings Portfolio updates at 24 Feb 2007:
No transaction this month.
200 units of Public Bank at RM8.55, current price RM9.20, total value RM1840.
200 units of Dutch Lady at RM11.50, current price RM11.70, total value RM2340.
300 units of KFC at RM6.25, current price RM5.95, total value RM1785.
400 units of Padini at RM4.40, current price RM5.70, total value RM2280.
Cash in hand: RM295
Total value in WB portfolio: RM8540

Public Savings Fund at 24 Feb 2007:
No transaction this month.
10718.114 units at RM0.7464, current sell price 0.7390, total value RM7920.70.

Fixed deposit at 24 Feb 2007:
No transaction this month.
RM8000 into fixed deposit with 3.80% yearly interest rate. Total current value RM8025.

Return comparison between 3 strategies:
WB Savings Portfolio: ~6.75% since introduction.
Public Savings Fund: ~-1% since introduction.
Fixed Deposit: ~0.31% since introduction.

My Tribute To Digi.Com

There is no doubt DIGI is one of the best managed company in this country!
Always the underdog and no backing from government, it keeps on posting the financial results that impress all of us.

With well managed strtegies, open-minded management, good cost control, aggressive promotion activities and well developed positive image, DIGI has managed to gain a lot of market segment shares and won a lot of people's hearts. It has rewarded its share-holders very well and very kindly. Good job! (Although I know I miss the boat, sad to say)

Now the concern on DIGI is whether it can successfully get the WIMAX licence to be announced this year. Personally I wish DIGI all the best! Having such a good company is to the benefit of all consumers. Because of DIGI, we can enjoy much much lower phone call rate. So competition is good. Monopoly is not good!
强者是不怕竞争的，只有弱者会怕！

破40亿成交量，1258点 （15/2/2007）

今天KLSE的总成交值突破40亿，综合指数也站上1258点，可喜可贺。
以目前的走势，我之前的担忧的KLSE困境明显是多余了。
大牛来的时候，蓝筹股往往领头先跑，过后就慢由二三线股接棒，这一星期二三线股明显上涨，有些涨幅已逼近涨停板的水平。疯狂的牛市就要来了。

期待着，因为毕竟没有见识过疯牛的市况，看来今年或许有缘大开眼界了。

现在或许是那些提早离场者锤心肝心痛的时刻，但是有赚就好吧！毕竟放进自己口袋的钱是最实际的。

话说回来，套句佳礼现在流行的话，“公牛来了，就得让利润跑吧，不贪，那又何必投资股票呢？回家睡觉吧！” 哈哈！


“过去超过40亿成交量的日子不超过 27天！而超过 45亿不超过 6天 而超过50亿的日子更不超过3天！大牛已经成型了，疯牛什么时候会来呢？” Quoted from 佳礼论坛dadi。

KLSE有史以来第27高的成交量

摘自佳礼理财论坛，klse.8k的帖子：
2/2/2007的成交量高达37亿令吉，这是KLSE有史以来第27高的成交量。
前30 的排行如下：
01．05/01/1994 指数1314，成交量54亿令吉。
02．04/01/1994 指数1313，成交量52亿令吉。
03．26/02/1997 指数1265，成交量49亿令吉。
04．03/01/1994 指数1289，成交量48亿令吉。
05．22/12/1993 指数1121，成交量47亿令吉。
06．15/12/1993 指数1116，成交量46亿令吉。
07．24/02/1997 指数1265，成交量44亿令吉。
08．13/12/1993 指数1090，成交量44亿令吉。
09．24/12/1993 指数1178，成交量43亿令吉。
10．17/12/1993 指数1110，成交量43亿令吉。
11．27/12/1993 指数1205，成交量43亿令吉。
12．03/02/2000 指数1009，成交量42亿令吉。
13．08/02/1997 指数1271，成交量42亿令吉。
14．29/12/1993 指数1232，成交量41亿令吉。
15．07/12/1993 指数1063，成交量41亿令吉。
16．25/02/1997 指数1272，成交量41亿令吉。
17．23/12/1993 指数1152，成交量40亿令吉。
18．28/10/1993 指数0947，成交量40亿令吉。
19．18/02/2000 指数1013，成交量40亿令吉。
20．06/12/1993 指数1041，成交量40亿令吉。
21．10/01/1994 指数1207，成交量40亿令吉。
22．20/12/1993 指数1098，成交量39亿令吉。
23．25/02/2000 指数1003，成交量38亿令吉。
24．21/02/1997 指数1263，成交量38亿令吉。
25．16/12/1993 指数1113，成交量38亿令吉。
26．20/02/1997 指数1266，成交量38亿令吉。
27．02/02/2007 指数1209，成交量37亿令吉。
28．09/12/1993 指数1067，成交量37亿令吉。
29．21/09/1994 指数1191，成交量37亿令吉。

两极化的市场，强者愈强，弱者愈弱

今天（2/2/2007）综合指数冲破1200点，成交值也超越了24/1/2007的纪录。
综合指数：1209
成交值：37亿

在一片唱好声中，马股也陷入了小小的困境。纵观整个牛市，市场焦点几乎集中在蓝筹股身上，尤其是政府相关企业以及强势的种植，建筑，石油与华商企业，当中的佼佼者包括了TENAGA, COMMERZ, SIME, GAMUDA, GENTING, RESORTS, PUBLIC BANK, IOI CORP, YTL, IJM等等。它们都是大户及外资的最爱。

然而就在这些重量级蓝筹股的市值一再创新高之际，主板二三线股，第二板以及自动报价市场似乎依然被遗忘，涨幅远较综合指数逊色。很多股项依然在低价徘徊，毫无起色，印证了今天两极化的市场，强者愈强，弱者愈弱。

散户的参与度依然不高，马股如何承接接下来的涨势，引人注目。散户一般钟情于价格较低的二三线股以及自动报价股项，因此真正在这轮涨潮中受益的并不多。当然一些能承受较高风险而投资于蓝筹股凭单的散户则另当别论。反观大马十大首富的财富纷纷大幅增加。

这股涨势如何承接下去，就让我们拭目以待。。。

GWSC Portfolio GWSC模拟投资组合 29 Jan 2007

Bought 1800 units of AirAsia at RM1.45 on 29 Jan 2007.
Total cost RM2610.
Total cash in hand: RM50.

Asset Allocation as of 29 Jan 2007:
Cash RM50
Equities RM53860
Total RM53910

Portfolio:
1. Bought 3000 units of PETDAG at RM4.68 on 19 Dec 2006. Total cost RM14040.
Market price at 29 Jan 2007 = RM5.20. Market value = RM15600.
2. Bought 3000 units of TONGHER at RM3.90 on 19 Dec 2006. Total cost RM11700.
Market price at 29 Jan 2007 = RM4.20. Market value = RM12600.
3. Bought 3000 units of QL at RM2.74 on 19 Dec 2006. Total cost RM8220.
Market price at 29 Jan 2007 = RM2.80. Market value = RM8400.
4. Bought 2500 units of KOSSAN at RM4.16 on 19 Dec 2006. Total cost RM10400.
Market price at 29 Jan 2007 = RM4.70. Market value = RM11750.
5. Bought 2000 units of AirAsia at RM1.45 on 26 Jan 2007. Total cost RM2980.
Market price at 29 Jan 2007 = RM1.45. Market value = RM2900.
6. Bought 1800 units of AirAsia at RM1.45 on 29 Jan 2007. Total cost RM2980.
Market price at 29 Jan 2007 = RM1.45. Market value = RM2610.

GWSC Portfolio GWSC模拟投资组合 28 Jan 2007

GWSC Portfolio added a new member:
Bought 2000 units of AirAsia at RM1.49 on 26 Jan 2007. Total cost RM2980.
Total cash in hand: RM2660.

Asset Allocation as of 28 Jan 2007:
Cash RM2660
Equities RM50970
Total RM53630

Portfolio:
1. Bought 3000 units of PETDAG at RM4.68 on 19 Dec 2006. Total cost RM14040.
Market price at 28 Jan 2007 = RM5.15. Market value = RM15450.
2. Bought 3000 units of TONGHER at RM3.90 on 19 Dec 2006. Total cost RM11700.
Market price at 28 Jan 2007 = RM4.10. Market value = RM12300.
3. Bought 3000 units of QL at RM2.74 on 19 Dec 2006. Total cost RM8220.
Market price at 28 Jan 2007 = RM2.83. Market value = RM8490.
4. Bought 2500 units of KOSSAN at RM4.16 on 19 Dec 2006. Total cost RM10400.
Market price at 28 Jan 2007 = RM4.70. Market value = RM11750.
5. Bought 2000 units of AirAsia at RM1.49 on 26 Jan 2007. Total cost RM2980.
Market price at 28 Jan 2007 = RM1.49. Market value = RM2980.

WB Savings Portfolio WB模拟储蓄组合 26/1/07

WB Savings Portfolio was started in 26 January 2007 with RM8000 and with the following unique feature to mimic regular investors that invest consistently every month:
1. Monthly investment RM1500.
2. For easy calculation, each transaction will be charged RM15 brokerage fees.
3. Subsequent updates would be on 15th of each month.
4. To benchmark against Public Savings Fund and Fixed Deposit.
The equities selection will be based on:
1. Consumers based products and among the top 3 brands.
2. Low cost with good management.
3. No heavy re-investment needed from the company.
4. Dividend

WB Savings Portfolio at 26 Jan 2007:
Bought 200 units of Public Bank at RM8.55, total cost RM1725.
Bought 200 units of Dutch Lady at RM11.50, total cost RM2315.
Bought 300 units of KFC at RM6.25, total cost RM1890.
Bought 400 units of Padini at RM4.40, total cost RM1775.
Cash in hand: RM295

Public Savings Fund at 26 Jan 2007:
Bought 10718.114 units at RM0.7464, total cost RM8000.

Fixed deposit at 26 Jan 2007:
Placed RM8000 into fixed deposit with 3.80% yearly interest rate.

记住今天吧！24/1/2007

今天大马综合指数1183点，成交总值高达32亿马币。
外资与本地大户交战，好不热闹。
个人认为，这也意味着大牛的到来。
这头大牛有多长的寿命，那我们就得留意接下来1-3个月的走势了。
成交值如果严重萎缩，大牛死亡，就得离场了。
假如成交值持续活络，大牛的寿命就增长，综合指数突破历史新高，站上1300点，也不再是遥不可及了。

历史上成交值最高的一天：
5/1/1994，成交总值高达54亿马币，综合指数1314点。

Jewel in KLSE: Public Bank

Public bank is well-known for its good management, steady growth, high dividend payout, almost everyone knows about it. But yet, how many people has bought it? Simply because it is "too expensive", "too un-spectacular", "too common"?
Yes, for those people who like challenges, it might be a boring waiting game if you buy PBBank. If you make money from it, you have nothing to show off, cause almost all analysts recommended it. If you make money from the so-called high tech stock that even you yourself do not know what business it is in, then you can show off to your friends...hehehe...
Today PBBank hits the historical high of RM8.80. I told my course-mate that how nice if I was to have more stock investment knowledge and financial background by the time I graduated. I could have learnt more during my uni time! TIME is the money, TIME is the king!
Let's see what have happened today if I invested RM9080 in PBBank by the end of 2002:

30 Dec 2002: Bought 4000 units of PBBank at RM2.27
21 Apr 2003: Dividend 0.09 per share, receive total cash 0.09 x 4000 = RM360
8 Jul 2003: Bonus of 1 for 4. Total PBBank increase to 5000 units.
21 Apr 2004: Dividend 0.11 per share, receive total cash 0.11 x 5000 = RM550
26 May 2004: CONSOL OF 2 50SEN INTO RM1. Total PBBank becomes 2500 units.
17 Dec 2004: Dividend 0.40 per share, receive total cash 0.40 x 2500 = RM1000
1 Apr 2005: Dividend 0.50 per share, receive total cash 0.50 x 2500 = RM1250
8 Aug 2005: Dividend 0.20 per share, receive total cash 0.20 x 2500 = RM500
21 Mar 2006: Dividend 0.35 per share, receive total cash 0.35 x 2500 = RM875
3 Oct 2006: Dividend 0.20 per share, receive total cash 0.20 x 2500 = RM500

Total PBBank market value at 23 Jan 2007: 2500 x RM8.80 = RM22000
Total cash dividend received during this 5 years: 360+550+1000+1250+500+875+500 = RM5035
Total value = RM22000 + RM5035 = RM27035

ROI = (27035-9080)/9080 X 100% = 197%!!!!!!!!!!

That means the RM9080 I invested has now become RM27035. What happen if I re-invest the dividend everytime I got it? Surely I will have more than RM30000 now! How incredible!
If only I have invested in Public Bank.

众里寻它千百度，那股却在灯火阑珊处

可以期待的平均每年股市回酬

作为一名投资者，你期待每年平均获得多少回酬呢？
佳礼前辈klse.8k有提过，我们可以把投资目标设在每年平均赚26巴仙。

他提到：
为什么是26巴仙？
因为我发觉到这26%实在是太神奇了！

如果一年成长26巴仙，今天的1万零吉：
三年后就变成了2万零吉！
十年后就变成了10万零吉！
换句话说：十年就加一个零！

十年加一个零，二十年就要加两个零。
今天的1万零吉，再加两个零就是100万了！

所以只要每年赚取26%，1万零吉的投资，经过20年就能够变成100万了！
而且这1万零吉的投资只是一次过，不是每年都加注！
这就是复利的奥妙！

详解如下：

年 Total
0 10000
1 12600
2 15876
3 20004
4 25205
5 31758
6 40015
7 50419
8 63528
9 80045
10 100857
11 127080
12 160120
13 201752
14 254207
15 320301
16 403579
17 508510
18 640722
19 807310
20 1017211

港股赚翻了 Lucky 4D numbers

近来有注意海外股市的朋友，应该都知道香港股市可说是高潮迭起，投资在香港上市的中国企业，更是赚翻了！
OSK的经纪人都说，很多人打去询问如何交易港股，来来去去就对那几只股有兴趣，什么ICBC啦，BOC啦，CCB啦。
在此不愿多谈，因为认识不深，有兴趣投资港股的，不妨去OSK问问吧。（现在可是高风险哦）
我呢，就先记住这几个4D号码，储存子弹，耐心等待好了。在此做个记录。

中国五大银行：
工商銀行 ICBC（1398）4.62
中国银行 BOC (3988) 4.03 (3)
建设银行 CCB (0939) 4.72
交通銀行 BANKCOMM（3328）8.6 (4)
招商銀行 CM BANK（3968）16.34

中国石油 PETROCHINA (0857) 9.77

中國人壽 CHINA LIFE (2628) 24.05
平安保險 PING AN（2318）37.8

The Eight Golden Rules of Property

1. You make your money when you buy.
2. Always buy from motivated seller.
3. Fall in love with the deal, not the property.
4. Never be the first to name a figure - that person always loses.
5. Be countercyclical.
6. Always try to buy with zero or little down.
7. Seldom sell.
8. The deal of the decade comes along about once a week.

Quoted from Real Estate Riches, written by Dolf De Roos.

个股研究：AirAsia 亚洲航空

个人觉得亚洲航空是值得留意的股项，基于油价飙升以及未来廉价航空竞争激烈的担忧，亚洲航空的股价始终无法更上一层楼。2006年的闭市价为RM1.51。

亚洲航空令我感兴趣的原因：
1。有效的控制成本，提高效率。
2。良好的行销及市场策略。
3。有个很好的领导者-〉Tony Fernandes
4。简单化的领导层，没有多余的繁文条例，愿意听取下属的意见。
5。基于以上4点，AirAsia和DIGI有很多相像之处，DIGI在Morten Lundal的领导下，证明了通过控制成本及市场策略，即使是在更强劲的对手及不利的竞争环境下，依然能取得亮丽的成绩单。DIGI从2006年初的RM7.80飚涨至RM15.20，高达95%的涨幅。这尚未把DIGI的资本回退与股息回酬计算在内。AirAsia是否能跟随DIGI的脚步？
6。致力于提到公司形象，对正年轻人及背包旅行一族的口味。
7。公司雄心万志，有消息指出，亚洲航空将于2007年和另两家廉价航空公司携手合作，飞进中国北京，上海，以及英国伦敦。一旦成事，肯定是一大佳音。

2007年是大马旅游年，AirAsia是否能乘势而上，冲上高峰，且让我们拭目以待。在此作为纪录，供日后参考。

http://www.sinchew.com.my/content.phtml?sec=1&sdate=2007-01-01&artid=200701011244
http://www.chinapress.com.my/content_new.asp?dt=2007-01-02&sec=mas&art=0102mc71.txt

GWSC Portfolio GWSC模拟投资组合 29 Dec 2006

This paper portfolio was started in 19 December 2006 with RM50000.
All the transactions can happen on any market day and the price is based on the closing price on that day.
The objective of this portfolio is to seek capital appreciation for medium to long term.

Asset Allocation as of 29 Dec 2006:
Cash RM5640
Equities RM47460
Total RM53100

Portfolio:
1. Bought 3000 units of PETDAG at RM4.68 on 19 Dec 2006. Total cost RM14040.
Market price at 29 Dec 2006 = RM4.98. Market value = RM14940.

2. Bought 3000 units of TONGHER at RM3.90 on 19 Dec 2006. Total cost RM11700.
Market price at 29 Dec 2006 = RM4.10. Market value = RM12300.

3. Bought 3000 units of QL at RM2.74 on 19 Dec 2006. Total cost RM8220.
Market price at 29 Dec 2006 = RM2.84. Market value = RM8520.

4. Bought 2500 units of KOSSAN at RM4.16 on 19 Dec 2006. Total cost RM10400.
Market price at 29 Dec 2006 = RM4.68. Market value = RM11700.